Odds of When Saban Reaches No. 5 on All-Time Wins List

Odds of When Saban Reaches No. 5 on All-Time Wins List
By Lou Monaco
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

After a tremendous come-from-behind 20-19 victory at Texas last Saturday, Alabama looks like a solid favorite to continue its winning ways at home Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe (SEC Network, 3 p.m.).

With every win by the Crimson Tide, Nick Saban inches closer to cracking the list of the top five career coaching victories.

Saban’s official record is 276-67-1 in his 27th year of coaching and he is an amazing 195-25 in 16 seasons at Tuscaloosa. (Some of those wins were “vacated” wins, following an NCAA ruling that started under previous coach Mike Shula and bled into Saban’s first year.)

BetAlabama.com set out to consider when Saban will catch and pass the coach currently fifth on the list, Amos Alonzo Stagg.

Here is the methodology we used: Utilizing the NCAA.com official list of Coaches with the All-Time Division 1 wins, we looked at the rest of the 2022-23 schedule, strength of opponents, current rankings, future odds and other research to come up with hypothetical odds of when Saban will reach No. 5 on the list.

Sports betting in Alabama is not legal as legislators hope the future includes a state lottery as well as mobile wagering. Until then, BetAlabama.com will keep you informed of any news along the way.

Here is that vaunted list of top six coaches:

CoachCollege*Career Wins
🏈  Joe PaternoPenn State409
🏈  Bobby BowdenFlorida State357
🏈  Paul “Bear” BryantAlabama323
🏈  Pop WarnerCarlisle311
🏈  Amos Alonzo StaggChicago282
🏈 Nick SabanAlabama276
* College at which coach broke record. Coaches coached at other schools.

 

Considerations for Saban Breaking Record

Two things to consider about when Saban could achieve the milestone:

  1. Saban has only two losses to non-conference opponents during the regular season, both of which came 22 years ago in 2007 - 21-14 vs. Florida State (at Jacksonville) and 21-14 vs. Louisiana-Monroe. Alabama currently holds a 54-game winning streak against non-conference foes in the regular season, including a 40-game home winning streak at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Saban owns a 100-20 (.833) career record against non-conference opponents in the regular season and postseason.
     
  2. Saban at home: 155-20 (.886) in home games during his career, including 97-8 (.924) at Alabama. Saban has won 66 of his last 69 games at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

After Saturday’s home game vs. ULM, a look at the Crimson Tide’s remaining regular season schedule:

  • Sept. 24: vs. Vanderbilt
  • Oct. 1: at Arkansas
  • Oct. 8: vs. Texas A&M
  • Oct. 15: at Tennessee
  • Oct. 22: vs. Mississippi State
  • Nov. 5: at LSU
  • Nov. 12: at Mississippi
  • Nov. 19: vs. Austin Peay
  • Nov. 26: vs. Auburn

When Will it Happen?

Using the methodology cited above, here are the BetAlabama odds:

5th-Place AlonePct. ChanceOdds
LSU (Nov. 5)31.7%+215
Ole Miss (Nov.12)34.5%+190
Austin Peay (Nov. 19)22.2%+350
Auburn (Nov. 26)10%+900
SEC Champ. (Dec. 3)0.5%+19900
Bowl Game (TBD)1.1%+8990

 

Roll Tide Future Odds

While there are no Alabama sports betting apps at the moment, we still can take a look at national oddsmakers.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Alabama is the second choice to win the Southeastern Conference (SEC) at +100, just behind defending national champion Georgia (-110).

Alabama is also the second favorite to win the National Championship at +200, with Georgia leading the way at +180 and Ohio State rounding out the top three at +300. 

BetAlabama.com also took a look at the Heisman chances of star defensive player Will Anderson.

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Contributors

Lou Monaco is a contributing reporter for BetAlabama.com. Lou had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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